Instability? Or the wrong kind of stability? Accompanied by a new report on North Africa in 2030, this year’s Rome Mediterranean Dialogue brings in speakers from foreign ministries and think tanks to discuss the region’s evolving challenge. But how effective is it to securitise North Africa’s development within Europe’s ‘southern neighbourhood’ model? Western policy is clearly driven by a specific definition of instability, one that places migration and transnational terrorism at its centre. But whether these resonate in North Africa, where frustrations target failings of a status quo showing every sign of continuity, remains to be seen.
If anxiety frames an entire regional approach, it is perhaps most concentrated in Libya. Here, renewed clashes raise the precariousness of peace less than two months from national elections. With early release from the UN’s fact finding mission giving indication of the sheer extent of human rights atrocities, are elections coming too soon? Do they presume a degree of unity that does not exist? And is an international system struggling to engineer meaningful consensus on Libya symptomatic of a deeper dysfunction?
Meanwhile, Tunisia’s democratic conundrum continues to do the rounds. Comparison between Bourguiba and Saied illustrates the significance of the current juncture, though optimism remains what is being dispensed of is a flawed version of democracy rather than the idea in its entirety. But what does democracy mean in a poorly developed country beset by corruption and at the mercy of international finance? And will early attempts to reform Tunisia’s Islamist camp address this definitional, rather than partisan, problem?
Turning westwards, the UN Security Council has voted to extend its mandate on Western Sahara. Whether this will re-invigorate efforts at resolution or merely extend an unhappy stalemate is unclear. But as Colombia becomes the latest nation to recognise Moroccan sovereignty, what are the relative strengths of independence and ‘southern provinces’ narratives globally? And what does the rise of new regional players mean for the future of international arbitration?
Linking to the conflict is the underlying question of Algeria-Morocco relations. But with its impact formally being downplayed, suspension of gas supply from Algeria to Morocco has certainly slimmed an already narrow field of mutual interest. And as Morocco sures-up its relations with Europe, Algeria sinks deeper into its spat with France, criminalising colonialism in parliament, disposing of French in a third ministry, and threatening closure of AFP offices. Are the latest tensions part of the cycle of Algeria-France relations? Or do they represent the end of an era?
North Africa in focus is a weekly review of literature produced on North Africa across Think Tanks, media organisations, NGOs, IGOs and Governments. Covering multiple languages, the review signposts you to the in-depth articles, Op-Eds, interviews and human-interest stories shaping the conversation on North Africa.
