Multiplicity, uncertainty and competition continue to define Libya’s yet-to-be-concluded revolution 10 years after the fall of Tripoli. Reporting on the progress of UNSMIL, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warns of the very real threat that positive momentum on Libya will be “reversed” in the face of parallel processes and intractable foreign interference, while remarks by the UN’s Special Envoy at the Algiers-Libya conference gives clues as to how Libyan peace is conceptualised differently at its various levels of co-ordination. Reflecting on the fundamentals of what the Libya conflict means, where it came from, and what its resolution should achieve is certainly a worthwhile endeavour, and the subject of a new BBC World Service audio series. But how useful is the democracy vs authoritarianism narrative for understanding such a messy and complicated picture? What are its limitations, and how can it be improved?
This question of ‘revolutionary fundamentals’ features too in the week’s conversation on Tunisia, where understanding the nature of popular support for Kais Saied means diving into multiple concepts of Tunisian revolution. In revisiting Sidi Bouzid, birthplace of the Jasmine revolution, Arab News FR stumbles on this tension between freedom as socioeconomic state, popular amongst the country’s poor and dispossessed, and freedom as a civil liberties concept, privileged by its francophone middle class. Speaking at a Centre for Strategic and International Studies event, Mohamnmed Melouche argues that it is precisely this pursuit of an excessively ‘political definition’ of Tunisia’s revolutionary principles at the expense of socioeconomic delivery that lies at the heart of its crisis. But does Saied’s unconventional management style offer a realistic solution? And what other factors are at play? In a discussion with Al Monitor, Monica Marks covers likely scenarios and the question of foreign interests, in which the role of France is paramount.
Further west, a truly three-dimensional understanding of Algeria’s diplomatic split with Morocco remains elusive. Is this a textbook example of distraction tactics employed by an anciene regime out of touch with its people? There is certainly the case to be made that the Algerian state’s particular version of 20th century anti-colonial nationalism no longer resonates with a large, ambitious, and socioeconomically frustrated youth. But does the narrative of a state-society split really capture complex configurations of power that cut across such neat dividing lines? Or is assuming uniformity in the terms state, society, protest and revolution part of a wider problem with the framing of regional issues? An MEI article on the driving causes of Algeria-Morocco tensions opens a more nuanced position, taking into account the ideological factors working alongside realpolitik, and assesses likely consequences for the Maghreb-Europe Pipeline.
If Algeria grows more distant with its western neighbour it is perhaps drawing closer to its eastern. A statement from Amnesty International calls for investigation into possible refoulement of UNHCR refugee Slimane Bouhaf to Algeria, amidst speculation of an exchange for Tunisian ex-Presidential candidate Nabil Karoui. Meanwhile relations between the Maghreb and Europe are also under inspection. Writing in Institut Montaigne, Hakim al Karoui warns of a new wave of pandemic-fueled instability in North Africa threatening European security, while an ISS blog claims a re-energised Western Sahara conflict is driving a rift between Morocco and Europe, giving greater space for external powers to influence.
North Africa in focus is a weekly review of literature produced on North Africa across Think Tanks, media organisations, NGOs, IGOs and Governments. Covering multiple languages, the review signposts you to the in-depth articles, Op-Eds, interviews and human-interest stories shaping the conversation on North Africa.
